Nine short months ago, the market research firm Dell ?? Oro Group raised its 2020 RAN consumption estimate for the whole year ?? covers 2G to 5G ?? from a mid-digit rate year-on-year increase to 10%.
With the market driven by 5G NR investments in North America and China, and with the pandemic apparently having no major impact, Dell ?? Oro estimated that RAN consumption in 2020 would peak at $ 35 billion.
Fast forward to Dell Oros’ release of its latest Q3 2021 RAN report, and projections will not be raised but lowered, mainly due to the impact of the pandemic on supply chains.
“Most major suppliers, with the exception of Huawei, reported that supply chain disruptions affected RAN in the third quarter,” Dell’Oro analyst Stefan Pongratz told Light Reading via email.
The result is that while Dell’Oro still expects 10% year-on-year RAN growth in 2021, year-over-year consumption is expected to be much calmer 3% by 2022. “More challenging comparisons combined with increased risks around the supply chain will weigh the market in 2022, “Pongratz said.
As it currently stands, Pongratz and his team estimate that 5G NR accounts for about half of the total RAN market based on third-quarter results.
“The shift from proprietary RAN to open RAN continues to gain momentum,” he added, “even though revenue growth in open RAN is declining on a quarter-on-quarter basis.” According to Dell’Oro, open RAN accounts for somewhere between 1% and 3% of the total RAN market.
Some things do not change
Global RAN vendor rankings, Dell said, remained unchanged. Huawei, Ericsson, Nokia, ZTE and Samsung ?? in that order?? remain the five market leaders.
Although the adoption of the Huawei 5G NR outside the domestic market has been affected by geopolitical pressure, Pongratz nevertheless notes that the Chinese supplier is “running well with existing LTE footprints outside China.”
Preliminary estimates, says Dell ?? Oro, suggest that Ericsson, Nokia and Samsung were the top three 5G RAN vendors outside of China during Q3.
?? Ken Wieland, co-editor, special to Light Reading